Consumer Confidence Increases Slightly
Winnipeg, MB – January 2, 2007: The Decima-Investors Group Consumer Confidence Index released this morning shows a slight increase in consumer confidence in the fourth quarter, up 0.6 points to 86.7. While the index shows U.S. consumer confidence outpacing Canadian consumer confidence for the first time in over a year, this is primarily attributable to the trend toward greater volatility in consumer confidence south of the border.
Decima Senior Vice President Jeff Walker explains the contrast between Canadians and Americans: “w hereas there has been some fluctuation in American confidence over the past year, Canadians across all regions have expressed continuing high levels of confidence in the economy. ” In fact, a mong Canadians, only Albertans indicated a drop in confidence, with the province registering a decline of 7.1 points over the quarter. Confidence rose slightly in all other provinces.
“Continued strength in consumer confidence and expectations help create a positive environment for Canadians who typically focus on saving for retirement and planning for the future at this time of year,” said Debbie Ammeter, Vice-President of Advanced Financial Planning for Investors Group. “Making important saving and investing decisions is always easier to do without having to contend with economic problems and uncertainties.”
The Decima–Investors Group Index is based upon a series of five questions that probe perceptions of current and future economic conditions. The Canadian index is closely modeled on the University of Michigan 's Index of Consumer Sentiment which measures U.S. consumer confidence on a quarterly basis.
Despite being the only province showing a decline in confidence over the quarter, Alberta consumers remain the most confident in the country: after reaching a high of 105.1 in early 2006, Alberta 's Consumer Confidence has fallen closer to the national average.
The data for this index is based on a representative sample of 2,039 Canadians (18 years and older) surveyed between December 7 th through 17 th , 2006. A sample of this size can be considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The Decima teleVox is a national telephone survey conducted weekly by Decima Research Inc. Clients can commission their own customized, proprietary research questions on any of the weekly surveys.
| February 2005 |
May 2005 |
September 2005 |
December 2005 |
February 2006 |
May 2006 |
September 2006 |
December 2006 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% (Aug) |
6.4% (Nov) |
6.4% (Feb) |
6.4% (May) |
6.5% (Aug) |
6.3% (Dec) |
| CPI | 2.1% | 2.4% (April) |
2.6% (Aug) |
2.0% (Nov) |
2.8% (Jan) |
2.4% (April) |
2.4% (July) |
1.4% (Dec) |
| C$/US$ | 0.81 | 0.80 (June) |
0.85 (Sept 26) |
0.85 (Dec 20) |
0.86 (Mar 10) |
0.90 (June 7) |
0.90 (Sept 1) |
0.87 (Dec 19) |
| Prime Rate | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.25% (Mar 1) |
6.0% (May) |
6.0% (Aug) |
6.0% (Dec) |
| TSX | 9,676 (Feb 23) |
9,840 (June) |
10,972 (Sept 26) |
11,180 (Dec 19) |
11,879 (Mar 13) |
11,607 (June 7) |
11,778 (Sept 13) |
12,782 (Dec 19) |
Regional Patterns in Canadian Consumer Confidence
| Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
May 2005 |
Sept 2005 |
Dec 2006 |
Feb 2006 |
May 2006 |
Aug 2006 |
Dec 2006 |
Change | |
| Canada | 93.4 | 86.6 | 79.5 | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 87.9 | 75.1 | 84.8 | 88.0 | 88.6 | 86.1 | 86.7 | +0.6 |
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 89.2 | 87.2 | 79.1 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 87.9 | 84.4 | 64.3 | 78.0 | 88.7 | 85.8 | 87.1 | 88.6 | +1.5 |
| Quebec | 88.2 | 84.0 | 78.4 | 90.3 | 83.6 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 70.3 | 78.1 | 79.3 | 86.0 | 81.1 | 83.0 | +1.9 |
| Ontario | 95.6 | 86.4 | 79.7 | 87.0 | 87.1 | 88.7 | 87.5 | 74.0 | 82.8 | 87.2 | 85.5 | 83.5 | 84.8 | +1.3 |
| Man/Sask | 91.0 | 83.1 | 80.0 | 83.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | 89.9 | 70.9 | 93.4 | 89.6 | 91.5 | 86.9 | 91.3 | +4.4 |
| Alberta | 95.2 | 83.2 | 79.7 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 93.3 | 92.9 | 88.5 | 96.0 | 105.1 | 100.4 | 99.8 | 92.7 | -7.1 |
| B.C. | 90.0 | 87.1 | 79.0 | 86.3 | 93.0 | 89.6 | 89.9 | 85.8 | 94.1 | 93.0 | 93.2 | 91.2 | 91.3 | +0.1 |
| USA1 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 90.2 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 94.1 | 86.9 | 76.9 | 81.6 | 86.7 | 79.1 | 82.0 | 92.1 | +10.1 |
1As published by the University of Michigan.
Regional Patterns in Canadian Consumer Expectations
| Consumer Expectations (sub-index) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
May 2005 |
Sept 2005 |
Dec 2006 |
Feb 2006 |
May 2006 |
Aug 2006 |
Dec 2006 | Change | |
| Canada | 93.4 | 86.6 | 79.5 | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 87.9 | 75.1 | 84.8 | 88.0 | 88.6 | 86.1 | 84.0 | +1.0 |
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 89.2 | 87.2 | 79.1 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 87.9 | 84.4 | 64.3 | 78.0 | 88.7 | 85.8 | 87.1 | 88.4 | +2.0 |
| Quebec | 88.2 | 84.0 | 78.4 | 90.3 | 83.6 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 70.3 | 78.1 | 79.3 | 86.0 | 81.1 | 78.2 | +1.5 |
| Ontario | 95.6 | 86.4 | 79.7 | 87.0 | 87.1 | 88.7 | 87.5 | 74.0 | 82.8 | 87.2 | 85.5 | 83.5 | 81.3 | +1.8 |
| Man/Sask | 91.0 | 83.1 | 80.0 | 83.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | 89.9 | 70.9 | 93.4 | 89.6 | 91.5 | 86.9 | 91.4 | +6.1 |
| Alberta | 95.2 | 83.2 | 79.7 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 93.3 | 92.9 | 88.5 | 96.0 | 105.1 | 100.4 | 99.8 | 91.7 | +1.8 |
| B.C. | 90.0 | 87.1 | 79.0 | 86.3 | 93.0 | 89.6 | 89.9 | 85.8 | 94.1 | 93.0 | 93.2 | 91.2 | 90.3 | +0.8 |
| USA1 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 90.2 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 94.1 | 86.9 | 76.9 | 81.6 | 86.7 | 79.1 | 82.0 | 82.3 | +15.2 |
Decima Research is Canada's fastest-growing full service public opinion and marketing research company, offering research-based advice to clients in the public, private and non-profit sectors, as well as large-scale data collection capabilities. Please visit us on the web at: www.decima.com.
Investors Group, founded in 1926, is a national leader in delivering personalized financial solutions to Canadians through a network of over 3800 Consultants located throughout Canada . In addition to an exclusive family of mutual funds and other investment vehicles, Investors Group offers a wide range of insurance, securities, mortgage and banking services. Investors Group is a member of the IGM Financial Inc. (TSX: IGM) group of companies. IGM Financial is one of Canada 's premier financial services companies with over $116 billion in total assets under management as of November 30th, 2006.
| For more information contact: | ||
|---|---|---|
| Laura Vallis Environics Communications (416) 969-2781 lvallis@environicspr.com |
Ron Arnst Media Relations (204) 956-3364 ron.arnst@investorsgroup.com |
Jeff Walker Decima Research (613) 230-2200 jwalker@decima.com |
