Consumer confidence dips – remains stronger than US
The latest Decima-Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence show that confidence declined slightly over the last quarter, but continues to outpace the US index for the fourth quarter in a row.
The Decima – Investors Group Index is based upon a series of five questions that probe perceptions of current and future economic conditions. The Canadian index is closely modeled on the University of Michigan 's Index of Consumer Sentiment.
- The Canadian index stands at 86.1, down 2.5 points from last quarter.
- The Canadian index remains slightly above the US equivalent, although the gap between the two countries has narrowed, as US confidence increased by 2.9 points to 82.0.
- Confidence among residents of Quebec (-4.9), Manitoba and Saskatchewan (-4.9) dropped over the Quarter.
Looking at the subcomponents of the index points up the fact that the Canadian index moved downward due to a softening of personal rather than macro-economic expectations, and that expectations for the near term (next year) dropped more than expectations for the longer term (five years).
According to Decima CEO Bruce Anderson “Canadians continue to feel that the Canadian economy is robust, despite signs that the current year may feature slower growth than in the recent past. Over time, many people have come to expect that economic cycles will be more gentle than severe, and that they are better positioned personally to weather an economic downturn.”
“The slight drop in Canadian consumer confidence should be viewed with interest rather than concern,” said Bill Chornous, Investors Group Investment Strategist. “When compared with Index results of one year ago, it is clear that Canadians remain quite confident about the current state of the economy and hold a positive outlook for the near and longer term.”
The data for this index is based on a representative sample of 2,033 Canadians (18 years and older) surveyed between August 31st and September 11th, 2006 . A sample of this size can be considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The Decima teleVox is a national telephone survey conducted weekly by Decima Research Inc. Clients can commission their own customized, proprietary research questions on any of the weekly surveys.
Decima Research is Canada's fastest-growing full service public opinion and marketing research company, offering research-based advice to clients in the public, private and non-profit sectors, as well as large-scale data collection capabilities. Please visit us on the web at: www.decima.com
Investors Group is a national leader in delivering personalized financial solutions to more than one million Canadians, through a network of approximately 3,500 Consultants located in over 100 Financial Planning Centres. In addition to an exclusive family of mutual funds, managed asset and other investment vehicles, Investors Group offers a wide range of mortgage, insurance, brokerage and banking services. Investors Group is a member of the IGM Financial Inc. (TSX: IGM) group of companies.
Recent Selected Economic Indicators
| September 2001 |
February 2005 |
May 2005 |
September 2005 |
December 2005 |
February 2006 |
May 2006 |
August 2006 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% (Aug) |
6.4% (Nov) |
6.4% (Feb) |
6.4% (May) |
6.5% (Aug) |
| CPI | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.4% (April) |
2.6% (Aug) |
2.0% (Nov) |
2.8% (Jan) |
2.4% (April) |
2.4% (July) |
| C$/US$ | 0.65 | 0.81 | 0.80 (June) |
0.85 (Sept 26) |
0.85 (Dec 20) |
0.86 (Mar 10) |
0.90 (June 7) |
0.90 (Sept 13) |
| Prime Rate | 5.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.25% (Mar 1) |
6.0% (May) |
6.0% (Aug) |
| TSX | 6,513 (Sept 21) |
9,676 (Feb 23) |
9,840 (June) |
10,972 (Sept 26) |
11,180 (Dec 19) |
11,879 (Mar 13) |
11,607 (June 7) |
11,778 (Sept 13) |
Regional Patterns in Canadian Consumer Confidence
| Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2003 |
Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
May 2005 |
Sept 2005 |
Dec 2006 |
Feb 2006 |
May 2006 |
Aug 2006 |
Change | |
| Canada | 85.5 | 93.4 | 86.6 | 79.5 | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 87.9 | 75.1 | 84.8 | 88.0 | 88.6 | 86.1 | -2.5 |
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 88.9 | 89.2 | 87.2 | 79.1 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 87.9 | 84.4 | 64.3 | 78.0 | 88.7 | 85.8 | 87.1 | +1.3 |
| Quebec | 88.4 | 88.2 | 84.0 | 78.4 | 90.3 | 83.6 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 70.3 | 78.1 | 79.3 | 86.0 | 81.1 | -4.9 |
| Ontario | 84.3 | 95.6 | 86.4 | 79.7 | 87.0 | 87.1 | 88.7 | 87.5 | 74.0 | 82.8 | 87.2 | 85.5 | 83.5 | -2.0 |
| Man/Sask | 86.4 | 91.0 | 83.1 | 80.0 | 83.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | 89.9 | 70.9 | 93.4 | 89.6 | 91.5 | 86.9 | -4.6 |
| Alberta | 84.0 | 95.2 | 83.2 | 79.7 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 93.3 | 92.9 | 88.5 | 96.0 | 105.1 | 100.4 | 99.8 | -0.6 |
| B.C. | 83.1 | 90.0 | 87.1 | 79.0 | 86.3 | 93.0 | 89.6 | 89.9 | 85.8 | 94.1 | 93.0 | 93.2 | 91.2 | -2.0 |
| USA1 | 89.3 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 90.2 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 94.1 | 86.9 | 76.9 | 81.6 | 86.7 | 79.1 | 82.0 | +2.9 |
1As published by the University of Michigan.
Regional Patterns in Canadian Consumer Expectations
| Consumer Expectations (sub-index) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2003 |
Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
May 2005 |
Sept 2005 |
Dec 2006 |
Feb 2006 |
May 2006 |
Aug 2006 |
Change | |
| Canada | 85.5 | 93.4 | 86.6 | 79.5 | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 87.9 | 75.1 | 84.8 | 88.0 | 88.6 | 86.1 | -2.5 |
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 88.9 | 89.2 | 87.2 | 79.1 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 87.9 | 84.4 | 64.3 | 78.0 | 88.7 | 85.8 | 87.1 | +1.3 |
| Quebec | 88.4 | 88.2 | 84.0 | 78.4 | 90.3 | 83.6 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 70.3 | 78.1 | 79.3 | 86.0 | 81.1 | -4.9 |
| Ontario | 84.3 | 95.6 | 86.4 | 79.7 | 87.0 | 87.1 | 88.7 | 87.5 | 74.0 | 82.8 | 87.2 | 85.5 | 83.5 | -2.0 |
| Man/Sask | 86.4 | 91.0 | 83.1 | 80.0 | 83.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | 89.9 | 70.9 | 93.4 | 89.6 | 91.5 | 86.9 | -4.6 |
| Alberta | 84.0 | 95.2 | 83.2 | 79.7 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 93.3 | 92.9 | 88.5 | 96.0 | 105.1 | 100.4 | 99.8 | -0.6 |
| B.C. | 83.1 | 90.0 | 87.1 | 79.0 | 86.3 | 93.0 | 89.6 | 89.9 | 85.8 | 94.1 | 93.0 | 93.2 | 91.2 | -2.0 |
| USA1 | 89.3 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 90.2 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 94.1 | 86.9 | 76.9 | 81.6 | 86.7 | 79.1 | 82.0 | +2.9 |
1As published by the University of Michigan.
Decima Research is Canada's fastest-growing full service public opinion and marketing research company, offering research-based advice to clients in the public, private and non-profit sectors, as well as large-scale data collection capabilities. Please visit us on the web at www.decima.com
Investors Group founded in 1926, is a national leader in delivering personalized financial solutions to Canadians through a network of over 3,600 Consultants located throughout Canada. In addition to an exclusive family of mutual funds and other investment vehicles, Investors Group offers a wide range of insurance, securities, mortgage and banking services. Investors Group is a member of the IGM Financial Inc. (TSX: IGM) group of companies. IGM Financial is one of Canada's premier financial services companies with over $103 billion in total assets under management.
| For more information contact: | |
|---|---|
| Ron Arnst Media Relations (204) 956-3364 ron.arnst@investorsgroup.com |
Bruce Anderson Decima Research (613) 230-2200 banderson@decima.com |
