Consumer confidence continues recovery
Ottawa – March 28, 2006: The latest Decima-Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence shows that confidence has continued to grow over the last quarter nationally, with better than average increases in Atlantic Canada and Alberta.
The Decima – Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence is based upon a series of 5 questions that probe perceptions of current and future economic conditions. The Canadian Index is closely modeled on the University of Michigan 's Index of Consumer Sentiment, one of the most widely referenced measures of consumer confidence in the US , tracked continuously since 1966.
The Canadian index remains slightly above the US equivalent, and has returned to its pre-September 2006 level.
- The Canadian index climbed to 88.0, up 3.2 points from last quarter.
- US consumer confidence increased up 5.1 points to 86.7.
- Confidence among Atlantic Canadian consumers grew 10.7 points to 88.7.
- Among Albertans, the index increased by 9.1 points reaching 105.1
Decima CEO Bruce Anderson commented, “Since the last measurement, inflation has remained low, unemployment has remained low, interest rates have remained low, and the TSX has risen by 700 points. The strength of these conditions have helped people get past the anxiety they felt in September after the rapid escalation of energy prices, and the stunning scenes of devastation caused by the hurricane season in the US.
Worth noting is that four of the sub indicators improved by two percentage points, while the consumer purchasing indicator improved by more than that, signaling potentially good news for the consumer component of the economy. ”
“Canadians' confidence in their near and medium term financial future has continued to build steadily over the past couple of quarters,” said Dom Grestoni, Investors Group Senior Vice-President and head of North American Equities. "The overall feeling of well-being can be attributed to the continued strength of the Canadian economy, driven by booming energy and commodity sectors."
The data for this index is gathered through a Decima teleVox survey conducted with a representative sample of 2,013 Canadians (18 years and older) between February 9 and 19, 2006. A sample of this size will provide results that can be considered accurate within plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The Decima teleVox is a national telephone survey conducted weekly by Decima Research Inc. Clients can commission their own customized, proprietary research questions on any of the weekly surveys.
Recent Trends in Selected Economic Indicators
| September 2001 |
November 2004 |
February 2005 |
May 2005 |
September 2005 |
December 2005 |
February 2006 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.8% (Aug) |
6.4% (Nov) |
6.4% (Feb) |
| CPI | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.4% (Apr) |
2.6% (Aug) |
2.0% (Nov) |
2.8% (Jan) |
| C$/US$ | 0.65 | 0.84 | 0.81 | 0.80 (Jun 13) |
0.85 (Sept 26) |
0.85 (Dec 20) |
0.86 (Mar 10) |
| Prime Rate | 5.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.25% (Mar 1) |
| TSX | 6,513 (Sept 21) |
8,959 (Nov 19) |
9,676 (Feb 23) |
9,840 (Jun 13) |
10,972 (Sept 26) |
11,180 (Dec 19) |
11,879 (Mar 13) |
Regional Patterns in Canadian Consumer Confidence
| Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2003 |
May 2003 |
Aug 2003 |
Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
May 2005 |
Sept 2005 |
Dec 2006 |
Feb 2006 |
Change | |
| Canada | 80.4 | 88.4 | 85.5 | 93.4 | 86.6 | 79.5 | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.0 | 87.9 | 75.1 | 84.8 | 88.0 | +3.2 |
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 76.2 | 84.5 | 88.9 | 89.2 | 87.2 | 79.1 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 87.9 | 84.4 | 64.3 | 78.0 | 88.7 | +10.7 |
| Quebec | 82.3 | 92.4 | 88.4 | 88.2 | 84.0 | 78.4 | 90.3 | 83.6 | 84.7 | 85.9 | 70.3 | 78.1 | 79.3 | +1.2 |
| Ontario | 84.0 | 88.1 | 84.3 | 95.6 | 86.4 | 79.7 | 87.0 | 87.1 | 88.7 | 87.5 | 74.0 | 82.8 | 87.2 | +4.4 |
| Man/Sask | 82.1 | 87.7 | 86.4 | 91.0 | 83.1 | 80.0 | 83.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | 89.9 | 70.9 | 93.4 | 89.6 | -3.8 |
| Alberta | 77.8 | 85.0 | 84.0 | 95.2 | 83.2 | 79.7 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 93.3 | 92.9 | 88.5 | 96.0 | 105.1 | +9.1 |
| B.C. | 69.7 | 87.2 | 83.1 | 90.0 | 87.1 | 79.0 | 86.3 | 93.0 | 89.6 | 89.9 | 85.8 | 94.1 | 93.0 | -1.1 |
| USA1 | 79.9 | 92.1 | 89.3 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 90.2 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 94.1 | 86.9 | 76.9 | 81.6 | 86.7 | +5.1 |
1As published by the University of Michigan.
Regional Patterns in Canadian Consumer Expectations
| Consumer Expectations (sub-index) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2003 |
May 2003 |
Aug 2003 |
Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
May 2005 |
Sept 2005 |
Dec 2006 |
Feb 2006 |
Change | |
| Canada | 78.4 | 86.7 | 82.1 | 87.7 | 81.5 | 73.1 | 83.4 | 85.6 | 85.1 | 83.8 | 72.5 | 83.2 | 86.0 | +2.8 |
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 72.0 | 84.2 | 83.9 | 83.8 | 79.2 | 72.3 | 81.1 | 90.8 | 86.9 | 80.7 | 65.5 | 77.8 | 88.2 | +10.4 |
| Quebec | 81.6 | 89.5 | 85.5 | 80.2 | 76.7 | 70.5 | 85.8 | 78.1 | 80.6 | 79.9 | 65.4 | 73.3 | 75.1 | +1.8 |
| Ontario | 81.1 | 86.3 | 80.8 | 90.0 | 82.0 | 72.8 | 81.8 | 84.9 | 85.2 | 82.6 | 71.0 | 81.3 | 85.4 | +4.1 |
| Man/Sask | 79.1 | 83.9 | 81.5 | 82.6 | 76.8 | 72.1 | 78.7 | 82.7 | 84.8 | 85.3 | 69.3 | 94.2 | 86.9 | -7.3 |
| Alberta | 76.2 | 83.2 | 81.4 | 88.1 | 75.4 | 76.6 | 89.3 | 95.8 | 89.7 | 91.1 | 85.8 | 94.1 | 104.9 | +10.8 |
| B.C. | 70.4 | 87.9 | 79.9 | 85.1 | 84.6 | 73.3 | 83.5 | 93.6 | 88.9 | 90.1 | 86.0 | 96.1 | 93.1 | -3.0 |
| USA1 | 69.9 | 91.4 | 82.5 | 88.1 | 88.5 | 81.6 | 88.2 | 85.2 | 84.4 | 75.3 | 63.6 | 77.4 | 77.4 | -2.9 |
1As published by the University of Michigan.
Decima Research is Canada's fastest-growing full service public opinion and marketing research company, offering research-based advice to clients in the public, private and non-profit sectors, as well as large-scale data collection capabilities. Please visit us on the web at www.decima.com.
Investors Group founded in 1926, is a national leader in delivering personalized financial solutions to Canadians through a network of over 3,600 Consultants located throughout Canada. In addition to an exclusive family of mutual funds and other investment vehicles, Investors Group offers a wide range of insurance, securities, mortgage and banking services. Investors Group is a member of the IGM Financial Inc. (TSX: IGM) group of companies. IGM Financial is one of Canada's premier financial services companies with over $103 billion in total assets under management.
| For more information contact: | |
|---|---|
| Ron Arnst Media Relations (204) 956-3364 ron.arnst@investorsgroup.com |
Bruce Anderson Decima Research (613) 230-2200 banderson@decima.com |
