Consumer confidence in Canada strong and steady
Ottawa - April 13, 2004: Consumer confidence held steady in Canada for the third consecutive quarter, and expectations for the future are unchanged according to the latest results of the quarterly Decima-Investors Group Canadian consumer confidence survey.
Based on a nation-wide survey conducted by Decima Research Inc. in February, the Decima-Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence stands at 88.0, unchanged since November when the survey was last conducted.
In the United States, the Index of Consumer Sentiment published by the University of Michigan stood at 94.1 in November, up 1.3 points from 92.8 in November (this measure is directly comparable to the Decima-Investors Group Index).
The largest changes in confidence observed this quarter are in western Canada, where confidence is down in both Alberta (down 3.7 points to 93.3) and British Columbia (down 3.4 points to 89.6).
Consumer Expectations. There has been a marginal decrease in consumer expectations about economic conditions into the future (over the next year and beyond). The consumer expectations sub-index (one of two components comprising the overall index), has declined 0.5 points since November, and now stands at 85.1 in Canada.
Consumer expectations also declined marginally in the U.S. this quarter. The U.S. expectations index now stands at 84.4, down 0.8 points since November, and is now slightly lower than the Canadian figure.
"Steady consumer confidence at this level is good news for the Canadian economy; although fuel prices are high, we have not experienced any traumatic economic or geopolitical surprises to upset consumer confidence," said Charles Feaver, Vice-President of Research for Investors Group. "We are enjoying a stable economy; jobs are being created, interest rates are low, and this survey indicates that Canadian consumers will continue business as usual."
The following table summarizes selected economic indicators for the recent quarter and dating back to September 2001.
| September 2001 | November 2004 | February 2005 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unemployment Rate | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% |
| Consumer Price Index | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.1% |
| Canadian Dollar/US$ | 0.65 | 0.84 | 0.81 |
| Prime (business) Rate | 5.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% |
| TSX Composite Index | 6,513 (Sept. 21) | 8,959 (Nov. 19) | 9,676 (Feb. 23) |
"With interest rates stable and the market continuing upward throughout the period, it is not surprising that consumer confidence remained relatively high this quarter," comments Tony Coulson, Vice President, Public Affairs at Decima Research Inc.
The results are based on a Decima teleVox survey conducted with a representative sample of 2,038 Canadians (18 years and older) between February 17 - 27, 2005. A sample of this size will provide results that can be considered accurate for the population overall to within plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20. The Decima teleVox is a national telephone survey conducted weekly by Decima Research Inc. Clients can commission their own customized, proprietary research questions on any of the weekly surveys for a per-question fee.
Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence
The Decima - Investors Group Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence is based upon five survey questions that ask respondents about their perceptions of current and future economic conditions. The data from the five questions are combined using a formula to calculate a single number - the Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence. The three forwarding-looking questions are combined using a different formula to calculate the consumer expectations sub-index. Decima's Index is closely modeled on the University of Michigan 's Index of Consumer Sentiment. The Michigan index is one of the oldest and most widely referenced ongoing measures of consumer confidence in the United States. It has been tracked continuously since 1966.
Decima Research is Canada 's fastest-growing full service public opinion and marketing research company, offering research-based advice to clients in the public, private and non-profit sectors, as well as large-scale data collection capabilities. Please visit us on the web at: www.decima.com
Investors Group is a national leader in delivering personalized financial solutions to more than one million Canadians, through a network of over 3,500 Consultants located in over 100 Financial Planning Centres. In addition to an exclusive family of mutual funds, managed asset and other investment vehicles, Investors Group offers a wide range of mortgage, insurance, brokerage and banking services. Investors Group is a member of the IGM Financial Inc. (TSX: IGM) group of companies.
| For more information contact: | |
|---|---|
| Tony Coulson Decima Research (613) 230-2013 tcoulson@decima.com |
Ron Arnst Media Relations (204) 956-3364 ron.arnst@investorsgroup.com |
The following tables summarize the data presented in this release.
| Index of Canadian Consumer Confidence | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 |
Feb 2003 |
May 2003 |
Aug 2003 |
Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
Change | ||||
| Canada | 83.3 | 80.4 | 88.4 | 85.5 | 93.4 | 86.6 | 79.5 | 87.6 | 88.0 | 88.0 | (+0.0) | |||
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 85.0 | 76.2 | 84.5 | 88.9 | 89.2 | 87.2 | 79.1 | 85.8 | 90.2 | 87.9 | (-2.3) | |||
| Quebec | 89.1 | 82.3 | 92.4 | 88.4 | 88.2 | 84.0 | 78.4 | 90.3 | 83.6 | 84.7 | (+1.1) | |||
| Ontario | 83.6 | 84.0 | 88.1 | 84.3 | 95.6 | 86.4 | 79.7 | 87.0 | 87.1 | 88.7 | (+1.6) | |||
| Man./Sask. | 83.0 | 82.1 | 87.7 | 86.4 | 91.0 | 83.1 | 80.0 | 83.8 | 85.6 | 86.4 | (+0.8) | |||
| Alberta | 79.1 | 77.8 | 85.0 | 84.0 | 95.2 | 83.2 | 79.7 | 88.6 | 97.0 | 93.3 | (-3.4) | |||
| B.C. | 73.3 | 69.7 | 87.2 | 83.1 | 90.0 | 87.1 | 79.0 | 86.3 | 93.0 | 89.6 | (-3.4) | |||
| Language | ||||||||||||||
| English | 81.7 | 79.7 | 87.5 | 85.2 | 93.4 | 86.0 | 79.4 | 86.8 | 89.6 | 89.1 | (-0.5) | |||
| French | 88.8 | 82.7 | 91.7 | 89.1 | 88.9 | 83.5 | 78.0 | 89.9 | 83.0 | 84.5 | (+1.5) | |||
| Gender | ||||||||||||||
| Male | 88.0 | 86.3 | 91.9 | 90.4 | 96.6 | 89.3 | 81.9 | 90.4 | 91.5 | 91.8 | (+0.3) | |||
| Female | 78.9 | 74.9 | 85.2 | 82.2 | 86.8 | 79.8 | 74.1 | 84.9 | 84.8 | 84.5 | (-0.3) | |||
| Age | ||||||||||||||
| 18-34 | 90.0 | 87.0 | 97.2 | 94.0 | 99.3 | 94.0 | 90.0 | 96.1 | 94.7 | 94.6 | (-0.1) | |||
| 35-54 | 82.7 | 80.0 | 86.7 | 84.7 | 95.5 | 84.9 | 76.4 | 85.8 | 87.4 | 86.7 | (-0.7) | |||
| 55+ | 76.6 | 73.0 | 80.4 | 76.9 | 89.3 | 81.5 | 70.2 | 79.9 | 81.1 | 82.1 | (+1.0) | |||
| Income | ||||||||||||||
| Below $40,000 | 76.9 | 73.8 | 80.4 | 80.3 | 83.8 | 78.5 | 75.4 | 81.3 | 81.7 | 79.0 | (-2.7) | |||
| $40,000 - $59,999 | 87.3 | 83.1 | 93.0 | 87.2 | 95.6 | 87.7 | 80.2 | 88.9 | 89.1 | 91.0 | (+1.9) | |||
| $60,000 - $79,999 | 89.2 | 84.7 | 93.2 | 90.0 | 94.2 | 90.4 | 83.0 | 93.5 | 90.9 | 96.5 | (+5.6) | |||
| $80,000 - $99,999 | 90.0 | 89.2 | 98.7 | 86.0 | 98.2 | 91.0 | 83.6 | 94.4 | 98.6 | 94.5 | (-4.1) | |||
| $100,000+ | 94.6 | 93.8 | 97.1 | 98.9 | 107.3 | 95.6 | 90.3 | 97.6 | 103.1 | 103.9 | (+0.8) | |||
| USA1 | 84.2 | 79.9 | 92.1 | 89.3 | 93.7 | 94.4 | 90.2 | 95.9 | 92.8 | 94.1 | (+1.3) | |||
1As published by the University of Michigan.
| Consumer Expectations (sub-index) | ||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2002 |
Feb 2003 |
May 2003 |
Aug 2003 |
Nov 2003 |
Feb 2004 |
May 2004 |
Aug 2004 |
Nov 2004 |
Feb 2005 |
Change | ||||
| Canada | 80.1 | 78.4 | 86.7 | 82.1 | 87.7 | 81.5 | 73.1 | 83.4 | 85.6 | 85.1 | (-0.5) | |||
| Region | ||||||||||||||
| Atlantic | 81.0 | 72.0 | 84.2 | 83.9 | 83.8 | 79.2 | 72.3 | 81.1 | 90.8 | 86.9 | (-3.9) | |||
| Quebec | 84.9 | 81.6 | 89.5 | 85.5 | 80.2 | 76.7 | 70.5 | 85.8 | 78.1 | 80.6 | (+2.5) | |||
| Ontario | 81.1 | 81.1 | 86.3 | 80.8 | 90.0 | 82.0 | 72.8 | 81.8 | 84.9 | 85.2 | (+0.3) | |||
| Man./Sask. | 76.2 | 79.1 | 83.9 | 81.5 | 82.6 | 76.8 | 72.1 | 78.7 | 82.7 | 84.8 | (+2.1) | |||
| Alberta | 76.9 | 76.2 | 83.2 | 81.4 | 88.1 | 75.4 | 76.6 | 89.3 | 95.8 | 89.7 | (-6.1) | |||
| B.C. | 72.0 | 70.4 | 87.9 | 79.9 | 85.1 | 84.6 | 73.3 | 83.5 | 93.6 | 88.9 | (-4.7) | |||
| Language | ||||||||||||||
| English | 78.8 | 77.4 | 86.1 | 82.1 | 87.4 | 80.5 | 73.1 | 82.9 | 88.3 | 86.7 | (-1.6) | |||
| French | 84.3 | 82.0 | 88.5 | 85.8 | 81.3 | 76.7 | 70.1 | 85.1 | 77.2 | 79.7 | (+2.5) | |||
| Gender | ||||||||||||||
| Male | 86.3 | 84.5 | 90.6 | 88.1 | 91.6 | 85.7 | 77.0 | 86.6 | 88.5 | 88.9 | (+0.4) | |||
| Female | 74.3 | 72.9 | 83.0 | 78.2 | 78.3 | 71.3 | 65.4 | 80.5 | 83.0 | 89.5 | (+6.5) | |||
| Age | ||||||||||||||
| 18-34 | 87.0 | 84.3 | 96.0 | 92.4 | 97.1 | 91.4 | 86.8 | 92.3 | 92.9 | 92.4 | (-0.5) | |||
| 35-54 | 79.8 | 78.6 | 84.8 | 81.0 | 92.8 | 82.1 | 71.3 | 82.1 | 84.5 | 82.9 | (-1.6) | |||
| 55+ | 72.5 | 71.3 | 78.1 | 71.7 | 87.9 | 79.1 | 64.6 | 74.9 | 78.6 | 79.2 | (+0.6) | |||
| Income | ||||||||||||||
| Below $40,000 | 75.0 | 73.7 | 80.5 | 78.3 | 78.8 | 74.7 | 70.2 | 78.8 | 80.5 | 79.1 | (-1.4) | |||
| $40,000 - $59,999 | 83.7 | 80.5 | 90.6 | 83.1 | 89.1 | 81.0 | 73.1 | 85.0 | 87.0 | 87.3 | (+0.3) | |||
| $60,000 - $79,999 | 84.9 | 81.6 | 89.8 | 86.1 | 85.8 | 83.1 | 76.6 | 87.7 | 87.4 | 91.8 | (+4.4) | |||
| $80,000 - $99,999 | 84.6 | 86.7 | 95.1 | 81.6 | 90.2 | 82.4 | 74.2 | 87.5 | 93.8 | 89.6 | (-4.2) | |||
| $100,000+ | 88.9 | 88.7 | 94.3 | 93.7 | 99.6 | 89.1 | 81.2 | 91.3 | 98.2 | 97.1 | (-1.1) | |||
| USA1 | 78.5 | 69.9 | 91.4 | 82.5 | 88.1 | 88.5 | 81.6 | 88.2 | 85.2 | 84.4 | (-0.8) | |||
1As published by the University of Michigan.
